Former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris in the latest version of the New York Times/Siena College Poll released on Sunday (September 8), days ahead of their anticipated debate.

Trump holds a 48% to 47% edge over Harris in the latest version of the national poll. The latest survey mirrors the one conducted in July when Trump led Harris by a narrow gap just after President Joe Biden announced his decision to end his re-election campaign.

Harris and Trump will participate in a debate airing live on ABC from the National Constitutional Center in Philadelphia on Tuesday (September 10). The New York Times/Siena Poll appears to show a potential momentum shift in Trump's favor following several other national polls showing the opposite.

Harris has surged in numerous polls since officially announcing her campaign, with FiveThirtyEight.com projecting a 47.3% to 44.2% lead over Trump in its average of 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Last week, American University historian Allan Lichtman, who has accurately predicted the result of nine of the last 10 presidential elections, said Harris took eight of his 13 'Keys to the White House' via the New York Times.

“Foreign policy is tricky, and these keys could flip,” Lichtman said. “The Biden administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza, which is a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight. But even if both foreign policy keys flipped false, that would mean that there were only five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House.”

“At least that's my prediction for this race, but the outcome is up to you, so get out and vote," he added.

Lichtman's "keys" are included below:

Party mandate
Contest
Incumbency
Third party
Short-term economy
Long-term economy
Policy change
Social unrest
Scandal
Foreign/military failure
Foreign/military success
Incumbent charisma
Challenger charisma

Licthman's formula has accurately predicted nearly every presidential election since 1984, with the exception being the 2000 election, where it forecasted a victory for then-Vice President Al Gore over eventual President George W. Bush.

Mike McConnell

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