I love analytics. They help me understand things. I appreciate loyalty. It’s admirable.
But analytics and loyalty have paralyzed the Reds.
Analytics are the organization’s default response to all questions, problems and decisions. Loyalty is too much of a guiding force in playing time.
A glance at a website like Baseball Savant reveals the Reds have plenty of players that have better ‘expected’ numbers than their results show. Guys that have been ‘unlucky’...that should be doing this, and should be doing that.
The problem? They aren’t.
And the Reds have a lot of pitchers with greeeeeeeeat ‘stuff’
Guys like Connor Phillips and Graham Ashcraft are great ‘lab’ guys.
The velocity, the spin rate, the shape of their pitches, the tunneling effect of their pitches….things of beauty.
You know what they aren’t? Consistent strike throwers.
Ke’Bryan Hayes was acquired because of his glove and because his ‘‘underlying metrics’ showed there was more to his offense that he was showing. Nick Krall bet over $40M on that.
Bad bet. He’s hitting .147.
Then, there’s Terry Francona’s loyalty issues. Having someone’s back, and believing in them is a core component of a successful manager. But loyalty has become a clear blind spot for Tito.
TJ Friedl is gritty, a hustler. He struggles to hit, run, and throw.
I root for Will Benson. Energy guy. Great teammate. He hits the ball hard. But he’s struck out over 38% of the time since Opening Day 2024, while hitting .199.
The last time Matt McLain had sustained success was 2023. It’s 2026.
All likeable guys. All guys to root for. All guys that aren’t producing.
Nick Krall and Brad Meador certainly have the talking points down…from quoting underlying metrics, expected numbers, and run differential, to even flipping over the back of the baseball card.
But I turn to Star Wars and Yoda in times like this: Do or do not, there is no try.
This organization is not doing enough winning.
That’s what is expected by the fans. There’s nothing underlying about that.
Do something about it. Now.