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The Hunter Greene deal is a really smart move by the Reds
Is there risk? Sure. But there is always risk in projections. You are paying for future production. There is no guarantee.
But this is about identifying a core piece and locking it up. It's a well executed roll of dice. It’s a move you’ve gotta try.
Pitching is gold….it’s expensive. Can’t chase it in free agency or trades. You have to scout-draft-develop.
And, it sends a clear message....to.....fans…..to the clubhouse. Commitment.
The Reds get cost certainty. Hunter gets at least six years security. That's nice trade off.
A deal like this is from the model of Braves...Rays...Astros…and back to the Indians of 90's under John Hart.
It's worth the risk……..it might not work out…but it's worth the risk. In 2023, a $53M deal is a drop in the bucket.
Greene could have cost them more if they'd gone year to year….
They buy his 3 arbitration and at least his first free agent year.
And buy his second free agent year, if they pick up the option.
He will make a combined $37M in those last two years.
If he's pitching well enough to pick up that option, imagine what he would command in free agency?
They lock him up through at least his age 28 season
Per MLB.com: The deal
$2 million signing bonus
2023: $1 million
2024: $3 million
2025: $6 million
2026: $8 million
2027: $15 million
2028: $16 million
2029: $21 million club option; $2 million buyout
He would have been hit arbitration after 2024.....free agency after 2027.
In my opinion.....
There is no way the Reds looked at this situation and thought they'd be done if they got Greene locked up. This is the first step of multiple extensions. Maybe not tomorrow...but near future.
It will be big. And it will be a powerful statement.
Final thought:
You can't complain the Reds
Don't spend money
Are just a farm system to the Yankees and others
Will eventually just trade away all their players
And then complain when they make a major investment in a homegrown player they've identified as a core piece of the rebuild.